My superintendent forwarded to the pastors under his care an article by Dr. George Bullard . I found this article fascinating, scary, and undeniably relevant to, well, everyone. It is long and worth reading. Here it is:
Ten Global Trends Impacting the Future
of Congregations
Webinar Edition
By
George W. Bullard
Jr.
GBullard@TheColumbiaPartnership.org
Discovering Global Trends
Last year a friend, who is a
professional futurist, shared an unpublished manuscript with me containing almost
five dozen trends that are currently shaping the future. As I read the
manuscript, I was inspired as to how many of these had implications for the
future of Christian congregations, particularly in
North America.
Being a person who would
shun one source research, I began looking around at various web sites and print
publications for other lists of trends. During my search I found some future
forecasts, some global trends in religion, some trends in branding and
marketing, and some vital signs of the future. I studied all of these to see
which ones most impressed me as trends with implications for congregations, and
around which congregations need to take action.
Ultimately I developed my
own top ten global trends impacting the future of the congregations. Some
implications and potential actions seemed obvious to me, but I knew there had
to be more. I invited a group of people to join me for one of four webinars
where I would share my ten trends, and ask them to dialogue about implications
and potential actions for congregations.
During November 2007 around
35 people joined me in this endeavor through the four webinars. Between
webinars I changed one or two of the trends seeking a set that felt right. This
manuscript shares the final ten
trends, and a summary of the implications and potential actions for congregations.
I invite you to join the dialogue and share your insights into additional
trends, and other implications and actions we missed. Send your contribution to
GBullard@TheColumbiaPartnership.org.
Perhaps out of this we can develop additional trends to share at a future date.
A key request as you read
these trends: Don’t shoot the messenger.
I am reporting trends, sharing ideas about their implications for
congregations, and suggesting actions congregations might need to take. I did
not create the trends. In some cases I might not be promoting the trends. I am
only saying these are trends we cannot ignore. I also realize several of these
trends will challenge theological and ecclesiastical positions held by some
North American congregations.
Global Trend One: Within 50 years the
world population will surpass 10 billion.
Currently the
world population is 6.6 billion. A significant pace of population growth will
continue for the foreseeable future. Underneath this macro trend are thousands
of specific trends.
One that stands out
is the aging of world population. The senior adult population is increasing
dramatically throughout the world. Especially in the developed or first world
people are living much longer. This fact alone greatly increases world
population. The traditional age of retirement is losing its significance.
Second and third careers are becoming common as more people make mid-life
changes in occupation.
In the
developing or two-thirds world the birth rates have not slowed down as much as
predicted. This drives the younger end of population growth, and is the part of
population growth most often publicized.
A second
specific trend revolves around the number of different active birth
generations. Employers are seeing up to four birth generations represented in
their employees. This presents challenges because of differing work ethics and
value systems characteristic of each birth generation.
Implications for
Congregations: With
the increase in the number of older persons, congregations must place more
emphasis on ministry with senior adults. They must see senior adults in at
least five categories. First, are the active, full-time workers. Second, are
the active, part-time workers. Third, are the active yet fully retired from
work. Fourth, are the inactive. Fifth, are the dependent senior adults.
Competition
between senior adults and other age categories for the focus and attention of
their congregations will increase. The tensions between the aging populations
and newer generations will become greater. Senior adults and younger generations
will be in conflict over the priorities of the congregation.
The tenure of
senior adults in a congregation, and their economic ability and commitment to
support the congregation, will tend to control the character and nature of many
congregations. At the same time, it is getting more expensive to get older in
terms of medical needs. Therefore, senior adults will be very cautious about
how money is spent. They do not want to run out of money. They will project
this caution on their congregations.
With one
generation not yet in the work force, and one that is now out of the work
force, congregations will see the age range of their active participants span
up to six birth generations. The typical congregation can minister effectively
to three birth generations without making major worship, discipleship,
fellowship, and governance accommodations to the various generations.
Once a
congregation begins to focus on four or more birth generations they must
diversify their programs and ministries to communicate with and effectively attract
people from the various age generations. For example, worship styles must be
varied.
Congregations
who do not diversify their programs and ministries will have one of two things
happen. First, they will not reach multiple age generations in significant
numbers unless they have a strong reason—such as family connections—that keep
them tied to the congregation. Second, conflict over values will be high in
these congregations, and they will maintain a degree of active tension that
will taint the fellowship atmosphere of the congregation.
Actions by Congregations: The increase in the senior adult
population will call for new models to help existing congregations develop a
vision for the future. The current senior adults are going to be around for a
long time. The distance between their perspective on vision and that of younger
generations will increase. Having a lot of senior adults in a congregation does
not necessarily mean the demise of the congregation in the near future.
Congregations
will need to rethink the spiritual and culture glue that holds them together. The
diversification of age groups will have an impact on architectural issues.
Accommodations will have to be made for space and accessibility needs for both
younger families and older households.
A majority of congregations
need to rethink being all things to all people. The typical congregation has
less than 100 persons in average attendance. They have few resources to
diversify what they offer.
Consider
intentionally starting congregations that are age specific. Already many senior
adult-focused congregations exist in areas where there is a high concentration
of people over 55 years old. For years it has been acknowledged that
contemporary or emerging congregations were coming into existence to address
the felt needs of younger generations.
A place exists
for multi-generational congregations who take on the challenge of diversifying
their worship, program, and ministry offerings. They have multiple worship
services that each offer a different style of worship, while focusing on the
same core theology and a similar structure to worship.
Global Trend Two: Family structures are
continuing to become more diverse, and the traditional nuclear family is
diminishing.
Less than
one-fourth of households are the traditional nuclear family. The various types
and categories of families/households have been dramatically increasing over
the past five decades. The fastest growing type of family/household has one
person in it. This means the stereotypical family of mother-father-sister-brother-cat-and-dog,
around which so much of the post-World War II generational values were built,
is diminishing.
Implications for
Congregations: Much
church programming is still based on a post World War II generation
perspective. During this generation few congregations had a ministry focus on
blended families. Divorce recovery ministry was practically unknown.
Interracial couples were something the movies dared to talk about. The thought
that unmarried couples would be regular, faithful attendees in congregations
was too far outside the norm. Same gender couples were not yet on the radar
screen.
Singles
ministries were just beginning to emerge as a college and career emphasis for
twentysomethings. Even in these singles ministries congregations did not know
what to do with divorced women. Divorced men typically dropped out of the
church.
What we had were
emerging family structures with whom we did not know how to minister. And, that
was just the beginning. Congregations have struggled for the past five decades
to figure out whether they ought to shun what were considered by many to be
sinful marriage and family relationships, or to be non-judgmental and let the
Holy Spirit work in these situations.
What ultimately
happened was that an increasing number of congregational leaders—including
pastors—had various ones of these new family structures impact their own family.
This led to a re-evaluation of mores and theology. Congregations began changing
the definition of what is a really bad
sin.
Actions by Congregations: Congregations must embrace the geometric increase in
the types or categories of families/households to whom they are called to
minister. The major category of families/households has probably moved from
less than six to more than a dozen over the past fifty years.
Smaller membership
congregations, however, cannot do this effectively.
They need to pick out the top three categories of families/households they have
the capacity to reach, and focus their programs, ministries, and activities
accordingly.
Congregations of
1000 or more in attendance will be attractive to many families/households
because of their ability to offer a wide range of high quality programs,
ministries, and activities. In fact, by the end of this decade it will take a
congregation of this size to offer a high quality focus on all the major
family/household categories. These will be the full service, family focused,
24/7/365 congregations of the next decade.
Global Trend Three: The acceptance of
diversity and pluralism is growing.
The population
of the world is increasingly diverse and pluralistic. This is a well established
fact. The key word in this trend however is “acceptance.” In
North America
many people are becoming
more tolerant regarding diversity, and more open theologically and
methodologically to viewpoints, practices, and life styles they would not have
embraced too many decades ago.
Racial
and ethnic diversity is on the rise. A greater acceptance of women in various
leadership roles is embraced. People of diverse religious backgrounds are now
present in communities, at school, and at work. Theological norms of the past
are now open for dialogue and even debate. Societal values are changing
radically. Many
communities are experiencing increasing multi-cultural expressions,
socio-economic diversity, and lifestyle diversity.
Implications for
Congregations: The
tendency is for congregations to reflect the diversity and pluralism of their context.
In places of little diversity and pluralism congregations are more homogeneous.
In places of greater diversity and pluralism congregations are more
heterogeneous.
The core
ideology and doctrine of congregations will be challenged by increased
diversity and pluralism. A challenge of core ideology will cause congregations
to re-examine their core values and to clarify anew the core of the Gospel.
They must distinguish between cultural values and faith values.
As cultures
diversify and become more pluralistic in thought and action, we will see the presence
of minority viewpoints becoming the majority characteristics of culture and
some congregations. Congregations will, of course, lag behind in becoming more
diverse and pluralistic. At times this will be a good thing.
Dialogue rather
than issue discussion and positional debates will become more important in
congregations. Storytelling will increase as we seek to listen to one another.
Deepening relationships will precede clarifying core values and doctrinal
distinctives. This will lead to a greater acceptance of diversity within
congregations, and a tolerance for doctrinal diversity on non-essentials.
Actions by Congregations: Congregations must positively struggle
with diversity and pluralism. They must learn how to dialogue about issues they
detest or fear, and to have genuine conversations with people whose viewpoints
they reject. Avoid judging people without understanding the basics of their
faith.
Congregations
must shift their paradigm or get left behind. More multi-cultural congregations
will come into existence. More emphasis must be placed on developing clear core
values. Congregations will be driven to distinguish between those things that
are essential in their theology and ecclesiology, and those things that are
cultural barnacles that have attached themselves to the core values and
practices of their congregations.
Dialogue—without
judgment—will take on a greater importance in the life of congregations. Regular
sessions will be held where people can share their religious autobiographies
with small groups or the whole congregation. We may even see the return of
testimonies in many congregations who abandoned them some years ago.
Global Trend Four: Immigration and
emigration movements are exploding.
People are
increasingly not living in their country of birth, but they may still be living
among people of their dominate culture. Newer generations of Americans will
increasingly live outside the
United States
to pursue personal and career interests.
The people
groups of the world are mobile. Various people groups are living throughout the
world and impacting the cultures in which they reside by creating more
pluralistic societies.
Implications for
Congregations: Immigrants
are significantly impacting the communities, countries, and congregations to
which they go. They are having economic and cultural impacts. This is
particularly true when large numbers of people from one country emigrate from
their home country and immigrate to a new country. A couple of examples would be
the Chinese in several cities of Canada, and the Latinos throughout the United States.
Existing
congregations are not often significantly impacted by first generation
immigrants desiring to become regular attendees or members of their
congregations. They prefer to worship in their own cultural setting and
language.
Congregations are
impacted when their community context becomes transitional with families/households
demographically similar to existing congregations moving out of the community,
and large numbers of immigrants from another country or culture moving in.
Existing
congregations are also impacted by the need to start programs, ministries, and
activities that reach out to new immigrants. Ultimately they may partner with
new immigrants to start new congregations that reach the immigrant groups.
Actions by Congregations: Engage in multi-cultural education for congregations
to help them be sensitive to new immigrant groups, and respect the richness of
their culture. Also, cultural sensitivity education for entering immigrant
groups may also be beneficial to help them understand the diverse cultural they
have entered.
Seek to develop culturally
appropriate programs, ministries, and activities that effective connect with
new immigrant groups. See such activities as missional or kingdom-oriented,
rather than a focus on church growth.
Provide the partnership
activities necessary to sponsor new congregations for the immigrant groups when
this is the best way to reach out and affirm their spiritual needs. Work with
your denomination and other congregations to make this possible. Look for
Pentecost opportunities when a multi-cultural congregation is the best solution
rather than a separate congregation.
Some immigrants are not
permanent in North America. They will be moving on to other parts of the world.
To the extent existing congregations can reach out to the new entering
immigrants, they ought to assimilate them into the congregation quickly so the
depth of their spiritual encounter through your congregation will be meaningful
while they are present with you.
Global Trend Five: The growth of Islam is
continuing at a significant pace.
Islam will
continue to gain power and influence, and have the largest impact of any
religious group in the world. Islam is the fastest growing major religion in
the world. Birth rates within the Islamic families are driving this more than
the rate of conversion. Muslims are also spreading throughout the world and
have major economic and cultural impacts wherever they are present in large
numbers.
Many European
cities are likely to be dominated by Muslims at some point during this century.
Islam will surpass Christianity as being the dominate world religion before the
end of this century. The number of Muslins worldwide has doubled since 1970 to
1.2 billion. Projections are for the number of Muslins to be 2 billion by 2025
as compared to 3 billion Christians.
Implications for
Congregations: North
American culture is in the midst of an emerging post-Christendom era. The
dramatic increase of Islam is one contributing factor to this, but not the only
one. It is possible that by the end of this century Christianity would drop to
second place behind Islam in size and worldwide influence.
Too many
congregations, and individual Christians, are unprepared to encounter
non-Christians and dialogue with them about spiritual and theological
convictions. This makes the whole field
of Christian apologetics more important than ever. This also heightens the
importance of interfaith dialogue rather than debate.
Too many
congregations, and individual Christians, are specifically unprepared to engage
a Muslim in dialogue about spiritual and theological convictions. They fear the
unknown. They have never read the Koran. They do not realize there are as many
varieties of Muslims as there are Christians. They fear the violence of
fundamentalist Muslims in a similar way that Muslims fear fundamentalist
Christians. In both cases the fears may be unfounded.
Actions by Congregations: Similar to the actions concerning
immigrants, congregations first need to engage in education concerning Islam. The
Church should develop strategies to reach out to Muslins throughout the world,
as well as in the context of many congregations. Proactive attempts at interfaith dialogue
will increase the ability to live peaceably with one another.
Congregations
must help individual Christians be clear about their theology, doctrine, and
ethics. Informed Muslims with deep convictions can outshine a casual Christian
very quickly. Christians need to be obvious followers of Jesus who focus more
on a relationship with the triune God than arguing the finer points of
doctrine.
Congregations
need to discover ways they can reach out to Muslim families/households with loving
ministry. They also need to discover ways to champion the religious rights of
the Islamic faith in the same way they would desire for Christian congregations
and individuals to have full religious freedom.
Global Trend Six: Communications technologies are changing the
way we live.
The pace of
technological change, in general, and communication technologies, specifically,
accelerates with each new generation of discoveries and applications. Communication
technology increasingly dominates both the economy and society. Communication technology
is creating a knowledge-dependent world society with social interaction
creating new perspectives of knowledge on a continual basis.
Creation of
virtual communities happens out of the overflow of typical, ongoing social
networking. An increasing number of people know more about people they interact
with digitally than about people they interact with face-to-face.
While the
watchword during the American political crisis called Watergate was to follow
the money, during the current communication explosion the watchword is to
follow the information flow.
Implications for Congregations: Congregations must redefine authentic community
around various means of interaction and two-way communication. They must
redefine how they communication among members and regular attendees. To the
extent they are seeking to reach out to younger generations, they must focus
more on digital communication.
Congregational budgets must
shift to include more funding for web sites, blogs, e-mail, podcasts, and other
means of digital communication. An ever larger number of people will make the
decision about attending a congregation by first looking at its web site. If
what they see is not pleasing, they will never attend the church.
In the emerging Christian
culture world missions channels will follow the information flow and not the
organizational flow. Congregation to congregation missions involvement will be dominant,
as will congregation to region, and congregation to country. Family foundations
connecting with congregations, regions, and countries will also continue to grow
in numbers. The whole volunteer effort through disaster relief and recovery,
and the efforts of various denominations symbolize this, as does the missions
partnership movement in North
America of the past 30
years.
Actions by Congregations: Congregations must adapt and communicate what people
need or they will ignore them. The emphasis that once was placed on print media
must be expanded, and shifted, to involve a major emphasis on digital
communication. The congregational web site is its virtual front door. Print,
audio, video, e-mail, instant messaging, text messaging, and social networking
through My Space and Face Book must all be part of a multi-generational communication
strategy.
Global Trend Seven: Information-based organizations
are in ascendancy.
Information-based
organizations are quickly displacing the old command-and control model of
management. We are moving from centralized to decentralized to distributive
systems for organizations. Distributive systems are networked organizations
that empower the grassroots.
Implications for
Congregations: The next Christendom will not be organized in a
centralized or decentralized way, but in a distributive way. A distributed way
of organizing is not hierarchical. It is a network manner that is
characteristic of emerging movements that are self-organizing. It is a strong method
of organizing that is characteristic of how the Internet is organized. It is
not controlled. It is free. It is the ultimate, ongoing, autonomous
collaborative movement. Distributive requires much more trust and freedom. Ecclesiological
values will be challenged by distributive models.
Leaders who insist on being
in charge are going to have tough challenges of leadership. The implications
for re-examining the theology of leadership are tremendous.
Actions by Congregations: Empowerment of laity, which is already a
fast-growing trend in many North American congregations, will continue to accelerate.
Programs, ministries, and activities in congregations need to be organized
around the interests of various affinity groups who will provide the leadership
for these. Congregational leaders must be increasingly permission-giving.
Congregations will be led
more by an enduring visionary leadership community than by a single
leader. This will empower a broader base
of kingdom ministry than can occur with a centralized organizational pattern.
The senior pastor will be the initiating visionary leader who provides the key
spiritual atmosphere out of which the core values of the congregation can
emerge. The vision will provide the fuel that drives the direction of the
congregation, and the core values will define the rightness of that direction.
Global Trend Eight: Increasingly
Christianity will be dominated by the Southern Hemisphere.
Philip Jenkins
through his book The Next Christendom: The Coming of Global Christianity [Oxford
University Press, 2002] and other mediums has been a major proponent of the next
Christendom coming from the Southern Hemisphere. I believe he is correct.
Evidence of this already exists at the edge of North American Christianity.
More
specifically, Christianity is becoming dominated by people of color from Asia,
Africa, and Latin
America.
Already more than 60 percent of Christians are people of color outside Europe
and North America. This does not mean they
control denominations yet. It does mean they dominate the spread of the
Christian movement.
Implications
for Congregations: Congregations will be more
conservative in theology. Worship will be more experiential. With the Southern
Hemisphere Christianity will come a more dominating form of Christian culture
than is currently experienced in North America. Generally moral issues
will be expressed in more conservative forms. It could lead to a greater
quality of ministry in North America. At the same time, avoiding a theocracy may be
a challenge. How the new Christendom will interact with the rise of Islam is
unclear.
Mainline
Protestantism may feel marginalized. Mainline Protestant denominations will
struggle for vitality in the midst of an ongoing conservative resurgence within
their midst that may continue to splinter their denominational organizations.
Actions by Congregations: Congregations must discover how to be distinctively
Christian in a post-Christendom world where not only is religious conviction uncelebrated,
but religious expression is openly criticized. Canadian Christians have been
experiencing this for some years. United States Christians are just beginning
to experience these post-Christian expressions.
The good news perspective on
this, if there is any news that would be characterized as good, is that
Christianity tends to grow when persecuted. This could move North America closer to the new Christendom that will follow a
strong—hopefully positive—resurgence of Christianity. This will come in
response to the growing influence of Southern Hemisphere Christianity.
Congregations should rediscover
the orthodox beliefs and practices of Christianity that empower the
re-emergence of first century Christianity. This form of Christianity will
focus more on relationship with the triune God than the programs, ministries,
and activities of congregations. It will focus more on being missional than be
institutional. It will focus more on transforming the context of congregations
than attracting people to the church facilities.
Global Trend Nine: Time is becoming the
world’s most precious commodity.
Many people consider
money, or its equitable distribution, the most precious commodity in the world.
In some parts of the world this may be true But, in comparatively wealthy North America, time is the most precious commodity.
Workers will
increasingly choose more time over more money. They will want more vacation or
holiday time. They will want sabbaticals for personal renewal. Simultaneously they want to be more highly
compensated for the time they devote to work, and a stake in the profits of
their company or other means of gaining long-term economic value. If they
cannot get these from working for someone else, they will launch their own
business and live out their own time values.
Implications for
Congregations: Because people are lords of their time, they will
be in attendance
at congregational worship fewer weekends per year. Four to five decades ago full annually
worship attendance meant a minimum of 48 weeks per year. Now it is 39-42 weeks
per year.
Centralized
congregations are having trouble finding people who will commit to the
leadership structure. People do not want to make commitments that tie them
down. They want a theology of the stewardship of time to declare what they do as
Christ-followers away from congregational activities is as important as they
attendance at and leaders of congregational programs.
Because time is
valuable, congregations will be forced to show value and progress in what they
do. People want to see results. Coming to congregational activities out of
loyalty is out. Maximizing the use of time is in. To older generations, commitment
to the congregation was expressed in time present in the church facilities. To
younger generations, commitment to the congregation may be an irrelevant
concept.
Actions by Congregations: Congregations need lean, mean administrative
structures. More time needs to be obviously committed to missional involvements
than to management activities. Spend more time involved in ministry and less
time attending meetings. Worship must be both inspirational and instructional because
many people will only commit to an hour or so on the weekend unless it is
something that appeals deeply to them or to family members.
Do more relationship activities
and fewer programs. Streamline programs and customize what is offered. Increase
quality in every reasonable way possible. House churches or home groups in
communities may be more appealing to younger generations. Give people
permission to do things with their time. Offer peace in the middle of
overwhelming time pressures.
Global Trend Ten: A shortage of natural
resources is having global impact with water being the key issue.
While many
natural resources are renewable, the pace we are using these resources is much
greater than the pace at which they are renewing. Going Green is not just an issue for the political or social
fringe. It is a core global issue.
Water is the key
issue of the 21st century whereas oil was the key issue of the 20th
century. Dwindling supplies of water in China will impact the global economy. The
diminishing of natural resources is giving rise to a focus on social
responsibility. Consumers are increasingly demanding social responsibility from
organizations and themselves. They are increasingly calling on congregations to
be world citizens concerning natural resources.
Implications for
Congregations: Congregations must take this trend more seriously, or people
will not take congregations seriously. Worldwide conflict over the equitable
access and distribution of clean water will increase. Whether cyclical or permanent,
this is an issue congregations must address.
Congregations
have generally lagged behind on earth stewardship issues. There is both good
news and bad news here. The good news is that congregations have been more
concerned about individual people than about natural resources. The bad news is
that congregations have not addressed systemic challenges of various kinds,
much less those that impact natural resources.
Actions by Congregations: Congregations need to work on a theology
of what it means to be a good steward of God’s creation. While they can engage
in short-term earth stewardship projects such as recycling efforts, they must
also engage in long-term issues such as the accessibility and distribution of
clean water. Providing clean water through wells and water purification in
various places around the world open doors for many more expressions of God’s
love and care for people.
In other words, Going Green is also a people issue. It
is just addressing it with a framework or strategy. Going Green has economic development implications which can move
forward to community transformation issues among various people groups.
Congregations
must teach an integrative theology of earth stewardship as it relates to the
sacred trust we have from God for all of His creation. This sacred trust
includes giving people water for today’s thirst, and the water of eternal life
after which they will never again thirst for spiritual meaning and
significance.
A Key Implication, Action, and Methodology
All these trends call for
the continual development of Christian people to be leaders of the next
generation of missional action in God’s world. They may require a new set of
skills to be developed. They definitely call for continual learning. They call
for sensitivity to diverse age groups, families/households, immigrants,
religions, perspectives on time, patterns of communication, organizational
styles, Southern Hemisphere Christianity, and natural resources.
A key implication is
leadership. A key action is learning. A key methodology is dialogue.
Recent Comments